Development of a method for assessing the functioning of a grain product sub-complex using mathematical modeling

The object of the study is process functioning enterprises grain product subcomplex. In course study, problem growth rate and peculiarities subcomplex were solved. An assessment was carried out Republic Kazakhstan using mathematical modeling, for which a methodology has been developed that allows considering factors with heterogeneous metric, includes following steps: 1) index analysis twenty-one indicators, divided into groups; 2) development formulas calculation integral indicators characterizing their dynamics; 3) determining pace 2011–2021. Graphs made forecast performance until 2024 presented one each group maximum coefficient determination R2. According to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic pessimistic. R2 an indicator quality forecasts: than closer its value one, higher probability execution. For eleven charts, in range from 0.9003 (pessimistic other industrial use grain) 0.9838 (optimistic number granaries). ten, 0.8025 0.8702, nine, 0.705 0.7932. This means reliability calculations twenty-nine options 70 98 %. indicates fairly objective predictive values 2024. Based on results studies, optimistic pessimistic scenarios are more likely be implemented.